Published: March 2026  |  therapyinsights.com.au

When the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026, the immediate headlines focused on missiles, airspace closures, and diplomatic fallout. Within days, however, the economic shockwaves reached Australian petrol stations, supermarket shelves, and critically the healthcare sector that millions of vulnerable Australians depend on every day.

For NDIS providers, aged care operators, and allied health professionals across the country, this conflict is not a distant geopolitical abstraction. It is a direct threat to operational viability. Fuel prices have surged by roughly 50 cents per litre since the war began. Medical supply chains dependent on Gulf shipping routes face growing delays. And a workforce already stretched thin by years of chronic shortages is now contending with rising cost-of-living pressures that make recruitment even harder.

This article examines the Iran war impact on healthcare in Australia through the lens of NDIS service delivery and aged care operations. It provides a data-driven assessment of the risks and sets out practical strategies that providers can implement right now to protect participants, residents, and their own financial sustainability.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. It is the single most important oil transit chokepoint on the planet. In peacetime, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through it every day, representing roughly 20 per cent of global petroleum consumption and a quarter of all oil traded by sea.

Since the conflict began, commercial traffic through the Strait has dropped by an estimated 70 per cent. Iranian threats to fire on vessels attempting passage, combined with the withdrawal of maritime insurance coverage, have brought tanker movements to a near standstill. Brent crude prices surged from around US$70 per barrel before the war to over US$110 within days, a spike of more than 40 per cent.

For Australia, the consequences are amplified by a structural vulnerability that policymakers have been warned about for years: the nation imports roughly 90 per cent of its refined liquid fuel. Australia entered the crisis holding approximately 36 days of petrol, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet fuel in reserve, this is technically the largest stockpile in 15 years, yet still non-compliant with International Energy Agency requirements. Average petrol prices have already risen from $1.69 to $2.19 per litre, with analysts warning they could climb toward $3.50 in a prolonged disruption scenario.

This is the starting point for understanding how a war thousands of kilometres away is now reshaping the cost structure of disability and aged care services across every state and territory.

Travel is fundamental to NDIS service delivery. Therapists drive to participants’ homes. Support workers accompany clients to medical appointments, community activities, and employment. Plan-managed participants already report that therapy travel costs drain their funding faster than expected, this is a concern the NDIA itself acknowledged in its 2025–26 Annual Pricing Review.

Under current pricing rules, providers can claim travel time at half the hourly therapy rate, and participants may be asked to contribute toward non-labour travel costs such as fuel. When petrol prices jump by 30 to 50 per cent in the space of a fortnight, these arrangements quickly become unsustainable. A psychologist travelling three hours each way to a regional client is now spending significantly more on fuel alone, while the NDIS price cap for that service remains unchanged.

The NDIS cost pressures of 2026 fall disproportionately on participants in rural and remote areas, these are communities that are already underserved. In these regions, therapists may travel hundreds of kilometres for a single session. The 40 per cent remote loading on NDIS prices, while helpful, was not designed to absorb a sudden oil-price shock of this magnitude.